Warner Bros. will collect more eggs than any other studio at the Easter weekend box office, between smash sensation A Minecraft Movie and Ryan Coogler’s critically acclaimed original film Sinners starring Michael B. Jordan.

The big question: Which film will win the race? Warners, trying to manage expectations, is targeting an opening in the $35 million to $40 million range for Sinners. There’s reason to be circumspect, considering the film is an R-rated, period supernatural vampire pic. Tracking services are more bullish in suggesting $40 million to $45 million, while rival studios think Sinners’ launch could end up north of $50 million.

A Minecraft Movie, produced and co-financed by Legendary, should easily earn $40 million to $45 million in its third outing as it jumps the $600 million mark globally, including $300 million domestically. The film is on its way to becoming one of the top video game adaptations of all time, and is already the top-grossing...