Brendan Fraser has long been the Oscar front-runner for Best Actor for his performance in “The Whale” as an overweight man reckoning with his past. An important stop along the way is the Screen Actors Guild Awards, which like the Oscars are decided by industry peers. Eight out of the last 10 lead actor champs at the SAG Awards went on to win the Oscar. So will Fraser join their ranks?

As of this writing Fraser is the favorite to win the SAG Award with leading odds of 7/2. He’s backed by eight of the Expert journalists we’ve polled from major media outlets, eight of the Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, half of the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s SAG Awards, and half of the All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine prediction results from the past two years.