2025 Box Office Predictions

OW: $16,000,000 (Actual: $15,022,909)
Domestic: $42,535,000 (Actual: $36,015,016)
International: $40,000,000 (Actual: $21,038,854)
Worldwide: $82,535,000 (Actual: $57,053,870)
Budget: $40,000,000

RT: 20% Actual: 62%'

Distributor: Lionsgate

Note: Den of Thieves 2: Pantera is proving to be a heist gone wrong—except this time, the only thing getting stolen is Lionsgate’s dignity. After opening to a modest $15.02M (just shy of my $16M prediction), the film needed strong legs to make back its $40M budget. Instead, those legs turned into Jell-O immediately.

Weekend two? Boom—56.1% drop. That’s not great, but hey, at least it wasn’t Fight Risk bad. No international numbers yet, but the worldwide total was $27.2M at that point.

Weekend three? Plummeted 54.7% to just $2.99M. This movie was dropping faster than the getaway driver realizing he left the engine running in neutral. Domestic hit $31.8M, and international numbers finally came in at a sluggish $8.6M, bringing worldwide to $40.4M.

Weekend four? Another 46.5% drop to $1.6M. At this point, even Gerard Butler’s over-the-top growling couldn’t save it. Domestic sat at $34.48M, and international at $15.05M, for a worldwide total of $49.53M.

Weekend five? Now we're in freefall. 62.5% drop to $600K. Not even enough for a half-decent getaway car. Domestic was now $35.59M, with international at $18.30M, bringing worldwide to $53.88M.

Weekend six? Forget it—68.2% drop to just $210K. This thing is deader than the sequel’s box office potential. Domestic crawled to $36M, and worldwide barely limped to $57.05M.

And now? It’s officially out of theaters. Lionsgate might want to consider filing a police report because Pantera just disappeared with their money. Managing only $57M worldwide on a $40M budget, this sequel couldn’t steal an audience if it had a master plan and an inside guy. I initially predicted $40M domestic and $45M internationally, thinking I was being cautious—but nope, even that was too optimistic.

Critics haven’t been too impressed, either. The 61% Rotten Tomatoes score and 60 on Metacritic suggest that the movie is just kinda... there. Not great, not awful—just aggressively okay. The biggest complaint? The shift to a "dad-movie" tone sucked all the grit and tension out of it. Even Butler going full “gruff guy with a plan” wasn’t enough to save it.

Audiences weren’t exactly rallying behind it either. The B+ CinemaScore and 72% PostTrak rating are fine but nothing to write home about. Basically, Den of Thieves 2 came and went without making much of a mark—just another entry in Lionsgate’s 2025 Flop Tracker™.

Lionsgate’s 2025 Flop Tally:
1️⃣ Den of Thieves 2: Pantera
2️⃣ Flight Risk
3️⃣ The Unbreakable Boy

At this point, they should start making a bingo card.

OW: $15,000,000 (Actual: $14,002,525)
Domestic: $50,000,000 (Actual: $49,693,138)
International: $5,000,000 (Actual: $1,440,604)
Worldwide: $55,000,000 (Actual: $51,133,742)
Budget: $14,000,000

RT: 78% Actual: 95%

Distributor: Sony Pictures

Note: One of Them Days refuses to leave theaters, and honestly, at this point, I respect the grind.

It opened with $14M over the four-day MLK weekend (just under my $15M prediction), and ever since, it’s been one of 2025’s most consistent box office performers.

Weekend two? $8M (-32.2%). Barely breaking a sweat.
Weekend three? $6M (-25.1%). This thing’s got some serious legs.
Weekend four? $2.85M (-52.5%). Finally showing signs of slowing down.
Weekend five? Actually increased to $3.315M (+4.3%). What is this sorcery?
Weekend six? A sharper dip—$1.38M (-52.2%). But still, holding up well.
Weekend seven? $915K (-33.9%). It’s not done just yet.
Weekend eight? $715K (-21.9%). Domestic hits $48.53M.
Weekend nine? $325K (-54.6%). It’s slowing down, but it’s not giving up. Domestic sits at $49.29M, inching ever closer to $50M.
Weekend ten? $175K (-49%). And just like that, it finally crossed $50M domestic! Now sitting at $49.6M, that milestone is officially in sight.

Internationally, it continues its slow climb. After a sudden jump to $661K, it’s now up to $1.18M, which isn’t a huge number, but at least it’s moving. That brings its worldwide total to $50.78M, meaning it’s now a certified $50M+ grosser!

For a film with a $14M budget, this is already a huge win. It’s more than tripled its cost, and Sony has to be thrilled with how this one turned out.

A big part of its success? The chemistry between Keke Palmer and SZA. People love their dynamic, and with a 94% Rotten Tomatoes score and A– CinemaScore, word-of-mouth has carried it all the way here.

It might be slowing down, but with $50M domestic achieved and a little more gas left in the tank, One of Them Days can still squeeze out just a bit more before it’s done.

OW: $15,000,000 (Actual: $12,296,645)
Domestic: $40,000,000 (Actual: $20,707,280)
International: $45,000,000 (Actual: $13,424,010)
Worldwide: $85,000,000 (Actual: $34,131,290)
Budget: $25,000,000

RT: 62% Actual: 50%

Distributor: Universal Pictures/Blumhouse

Note & Prediction Changed: Wolfman is officially dead and buried. Universal thought they had a monster movie comeback on their hands, but instead, they unleashed one of the biggest disasters of 2025. With a $25M budget, it couldn’t even sniff $35M worldwide, tapping out at $20.7M domestic and $13.38M internationally for a pathetic $34.09M total.

It started off weak and then collapsed faster than the werewolf transformation sequence.

Weekend 1: A $12.3M four-day MLK opening—bad, but maybe salvageable.
Weekend 2: Oh wait, never mind. 70.2% drop to $3.2M. Yeah, this thing was already dead.
Weekend 3: Wanna see a magic trick? Wolfman disappeared with a 64.6% drop to just $1.15M.
Weekend 4: Okay, wrap it up. A 77.2% collapse to $260K. You could hear the tumbleweeds rolling through the theaters.
Final Total: $20.56M domestic / $34.09M worldwide. Not even close to breaking even.

So, what went wrong? Everything.

The werewolf design? Yikes. Instead of being terrifying, it looked like someone glued extra hair onto a sleep paralysis demon.
Critics were meh (50% Rotten Tomatoes, 51 Metacritic), and audiences straight-up hated it (C– CinemaScore).
Christopher Abbott and Julia Garner? Great actors, stuck in a bad movie with bad writing.
Universal really thought they were about to have The Invisible Man (2020) numbers. Instead? They got another Dark Universe-style disaster. I originally thought $40M domestic and $45M international was possible, but Wolfman barely managed to limp past $30M worldwide.

Honestly, Universal needs to sit down and think about their monster movies. First, Renfield flopped. Now Wolfman got shredded at the box office. At this point, the scariest thing about these movies is how much money they’re losing.

Moral of the story? If you’re making a werewolf movie, maybe don’t make the werewolf look like it crawled out of a rejected Silent Hill game.

OW: $12,000,000 (Actual: $11,583,488)
Domestic: $30,000,000 (Actual: $29,783,527)
International: $30,000,000 (Actual: $13,851,406)
Worldwide: $60,000,000 (Actual: $43,634,933)
Budget: $25,000,000

RT: 32% Actual: 30%

Distributor: Lionsgate

Note: Flight Risk opened to $11.58M, just under my $12M prediction. Not a total disaster—at first. But little did we know, this movie was about to nosedive harder than a budget airline flight during a thunderstorm.

Weekend two? $5.6M (-51.7%). A brutal drop, but at least it wasn’t a total wipeout just yet. International numbers arrived, adding $4.2M for a worldwide total of $25.1M.

Weekend three? $2.6M (-52.2%). Mayday, mayday! This thing is in free fall. Worldwide was at $34.3M, but at this rate, the only “flight risk” was audiences running out of the theater before the credits rolled.

Weekend four? $1.875M (-35.9%). A slightly less horrifying drop, but Lionsgate had to be wondering if they should’ve just spent this budget on a lifetime supply of peanuts instead. Domestic hit $28.14M, worldwide reached $40.39M.

Weekend five? $601K (-61.7%). That’s not a drop—that’s a plane crash. If this movie were an actual flight, the oxygen masks would’ve deployed, and everyone onboard would be praying.

Weekend six? $301K (-49.9%). The black box has been recovered. This movie is so dead even the pilots have stopped making announcements. Domestic sat at $29.47M, worldwide at $42.83M, and somewhere, Mark Wahlberg was already pretending he was never in this.

Weekend seven? $122,671 (-59.3%). That’s not even turbulence anymore—it’s the wreckage sinking to the ocean floor. Domestic is at $29.78M, international at $13.62M, and worldwide at $43.40M. At this point, it’s earning less per weekend than a YouTube vlogger’s ad revenue.

Critics were just as unimpressed. Rotten Tomatoes is at 30%, Metacritic sits at 38/100, and CinemaScore audiences handed it a C, which is the film rating equivalent of "you tried."

Reviewers tried to be polite. Wendy Ide (The Guardian) called it “pulpy fun,” which is critic code for "bad, but I didn’t totally hate my life while watching it." Meanwhile, RogerEbert.com suggested it might get a cult following, which is a fancy way of saying, "some dude on Reddit will ironically call this a masterpiece in five years."

At this point, Flight Risk is barely hanging on. If you listen closely, you can hear it desperately whispering, "please, just let me die."

And with that, Lionsgate racks up flop #3 for 2025 already!
1️⃣ Den of Thieves 2: Pantera
2️⃣ Flight Risk
3️⃣ The Unbreakable Boy

At this point, they should start making a bingo card.

OW: $13,000,000 (Actual: $9,300,113)
Domestic: $30,000,000 (Actual: $20,809,101)
International: $25,000,000 (Actual: $15,700,000)
Worldwide: $55,000,000 (Actual: $36,509,101)
Budget: $10,000,000

RT: 87% Actual: 94%

Distributor: Warner Bros.

Note: Companion had all the makings of a surprise horror hit, but Warner Bros. fumbled it so hard that it’s almost impressive.

The film opened with a solid 94% on Rotten Tomatoes, a 72 on Metacritic, and a B+ CinemaScore, meaning people actually liked it. But instead of letting it breathe in theaters, WB threw it onto digital just 18 days after release, basically slamming the brakes on any potential momentum. How do you expect a movie to have legs when you cut them off yourself?

The box office run started with a $9.3M debut, finishing second behind Dog Man—not exactly a badge of honor, but it was at least in the game. It managed a $15M worldwide opening thanks to a $5.5M international launch, so there was hope for strong holds. Then came the collapse.

Weekend two? $3M (-67.5%). Super Bowl weekend hurt, but still brutal.
Weekend three? $1.8M (-40%). Not catastrophic, but far from great.
Weekend four? $608K (-66.9%). Dropped out of the top ten entirely.
Weekend five? $250K (-58.9%). At this point, only the lost and the curious were showing up.
Weekend six? $68K (-72.8%). Yeah… it’s over.

Domestically, it’s at $20.8M, while internationally, it bumped up to $15.7M, bringing its worldwide total to $36.5M. For a $10M budget, it’s not a total disaster, but Warner Bros. spent $29M on marketing, so they needed way more than this to break even.

And speaking of marketing—where did that money even go? Reports claimed they spent $10M on TV ads, but some sources say it was actually only $830K, most of which went toward one NFL playoff spot. So they half-assed the marketing, then made sure no one could find the movie by yanking it from theaters almost immediately. It’s like they actively wanted it to fail.

What makes this so frustrating is that Companion had everything it needed to thrive. It had great reviews, solid word-of-mouth, and a unique hook. This could have been the next M3GAN, but instead, it’s just another horror movie WB threw in the trash.

They didn’t just fumble the bag—they set it on fire and danced around the ashes.

OW: $35,300,000 (Actual: $36,001,940)
Domestic: $110,000,000 (Actual: $97,815,760)
International: $45,000,000 (Actual: $36,428,000)
Worldwide: $155,000,000 (Actual: $134,243,760)
Budget: $40,000,000

RT: 66% Actual: 80%

Distributor: Universal/DreamWorks Animation

Note: Dog Man continues to show surprising staying power at the box office. Despite some expected drops, the animated film has proven its appeal with family audiences, especially thanks to its strong word-of-mouth and positive reviews. With a solid opening and a steady decline over the weeks, the movie is well on its way to becoming one of the year's unexpected success stories. After 10 weekends, it's already far exceeded its $40M budget and is still holding on strong.

Here’s a breakdown of its run so far:

Weekend 1: $36M ("A strong start! Exceeded expectations.")
Weekend 2: $13.7M (-61.9%) ("Big drop, but not unexpected with Super Bowl.")
Weekend 3: $12.5M (-29.5%) ("Impressive hold, still showing strong family appeal.")
Weekend 4: $5.86M (-40.1%) ("Slowing down, but still in the game.")
Weekend 5: $4.35M (-27.5%) ("Great post-spring break legs.")
Weekend 6: $3.4M (-20%) ("Barely losing steam.")
Weekend 7: $2.5M (-26.4%) ("Still sticking around despite new competition.")
Weekend 8: $1.5M (-41%) ("Taking a bigger hit, but holding strong enough.")
Weekend 9: $849,510 (-42.9%)
Weekend 10: $220,260 (-74.1%)
For a $40M budget, Dog Man has already tripled its cost, proving that strong family films can continue to thrive well beyond their opening. It’s still got legs and could reach $150M+ worldwide by the end of its run. With a mix of critical praise and high audience scores (80% on Rotten Tomatoes, A CinemaScore), it’s a solid win, even if it doesn’t reach its original $220M projection.

OW: $10,000,000 (Actual: $8,305,156)
Domestic: $35,000,000 (Actual: $30,269,144)
International: $20,000,000 (Actual: $2,528,717)
Worldwide: $55,000,000 (Actual: $32,797,831)
Budget: $18,000,000

RT: 87% Actual: 80%

Distributor: Screen Gems/Spyglass

Note: Heart Eyes had one of the most chaotic, frustrating, and downright bizarre box office runs of 2025. Like, seriously—this movie had all the pieces to do well, and yet, it tripped over itself at every turn.

It opened to $8.5M, which wasn’t great but at least gave it a shot. Then, weekend two pulled a total plot twist—$11M (+29.4%)! A horror movie increasing in weekend two? That never happens! For a second, it looked like this thing had real legs.

And then? It immediately faceplanted.

Weekend 3: $2.7M (-72.7%) ("Oh. Oh no.")
Weekend 4: $1.3M (-51.8%) ("Is it… is it okay??")
Weekend 5: $521K (-59.9%) ("Nope. It’s dead.")
Weekend 6: $185K (-64.5%) ("Somebody call time of death.")
Now sitting at $30.26M domestic and $2.52M international ($32.79M worldwide), this should have done way better. The $18M budget wasn’t massive, and with a solid 80% Rotten Tomatoes score, a Valentine’s Day release, and two incredibly attractive leads in Mason Gooding and Olivia Holt, this should’ve been a win for Paramount.

But nope.

They completely dropped the ball. The marketing? Minimal. They most definitely didn’t spend $29M like Warner Bros. did on Companion, and it showed. And even beyond that, audiences weren’t feeling it.

A B– CinemaScore and mediocre word-of-mouth sank this thing fast. And the biggest issue? It tried way too hard to be a Hallmark romance with slasher elements and ultimately failed at both.

At best, it crawls to $36M worldwide. But man… this should’ve been so much bigger. What a waste of potential.

OW: $110,300,000 (Actual: $100,021,014)
Domestic: $215,000,000 (Actual: $199,081,549)
International: $250,000,000 (Actual: $213,759,648)
Worldwide: $465,000,000 (Actual: $412,841,197)
Budget: $180,000,000

RT: 75% Actual: 51%

Distributor: Disney/Marvel

Note: Captain America: Brave New World is still limping along, but the numbers don’t lie—it’s been a rough ride. After opening to a solid $100M, the MCU flick has dropped pretty hard, with no signs of a big turnaround.

Here's the rundown:

Weekend 1: $100M
("Alright, not bad! Maybe the MCU still has life!")

Weekend 2: $28.17M (-68.3%)
("Yikes. That's a big drop.")

Weekend 3: $14.85M (-47.3%)
("At least it didn’t fall another 70%, but... it’s still not great.")

Weekend 4: $8.38M (-43.5%)
("Even the diehards are starting to bail.")

Weekend 5: $5.69M (-32.1%)
("Trying to hold on, but the numbers aren’t looking good.")

Weekend 6: $4.1M (-28%)
("It’s slowing down, but the damage is done.")

Weekend 7: $2.92M (-27.4%)
("Still hanging in there, but this is getting rough.")

Weekend 8: $1.35M (-53.7%)
("Down to the wire now. It’s not looking good for hitting $500M worldwide.") So, after a pretty strong start, Captain America: Brave New World is still hanging on—but barely. It’s gonna finish under $500M worldwide, and that’s pretty disappointing for a Captain America movie. Reviews are bad (51% RT, 42 Metacritic, B– CinemaScore), and it’s clear MCU fatigue has hit hard. This isn’t a Marvel's The Marvels level disaster, but it's definitely another letdown for the MCU in its current slump.

OW: $19,000,000 (Actual: $16,008,191)
Domestic: $50,000,000 (Actual: $45,026,354)
International: $180,000,000 (Actual: $146,400,000)
Worldwide: $230,000,000 (Actual: $191,426,354)
Budget: $90,000,000

RT: 72% Actual: 93%

Distributor: Sony/StudioCanal

Note: Paddington in Peru is proving once again that this little bear doesn’t need massive numbers to be a global success—he’s all about the marmalade, the heartwarming charm, and spreading good vibes across the world. Despite facing a 48.3% drop in its sixth weekend, bringing in $675K, it is currently sitting at $45.03M domestic and $146.4M international ($191.43M worldwide) on a $90M budget. For a family film, this is a solid performance, and it’s still got some mileage left.

Let’s take a look at its journey so far:

Weekend 1: $16M (“Not great, not terrible. But we know Paddington’s got legs.”)
Weekend 2: $6.5M (-38.5%) (“Holding up better than most live-action family films.”)
Weekend 3: $4.52M (-30.5%) (“Slow and steady wins the race.”)
Weekend 4: $3.71M (-18%) (“Paddington refuses to leave. And honestly? Good for him.”)
Weekend 5: $2.68M (-27.7%) (“Still holding on while other movies drop like flies.”)
Weekend 6: $1.3M (-51.4%) (“Still holding, but the drop is more significant now.”)
Weekend 7: $675K (-48.3%) (“A sharp drop, but this bear’s not giving up yet.”)

Now, sitting at $45.03M domestic and $146.4M international, Paddington in Peru has reached a worldwide total of $191.43M, well beyond its $90M budget, marking it as a solid success. Internationally, Paddington is once again showing that he’s one of the most bankable family characters worldwide. While the U.S. may treat this as a smaller win, overseas, this bear is royalty. Despite the recent slowdown in performance, $200M internationally still feels within reach, though it might come in slightly lower, around $180M-$190M, depending on how the next few weeks play out. This would bring the worldwide total to around $230M-$240M—an impressive result for a family film.

With 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and an A CinemaScore, audiences and critics are still on board, and families continue to show up week after week. While it might not be a massive domestic hit, Paddington in Peru is exactly what we’ve come to expect from this beloved character—an evergreen box office performer that doesn’t chase trends but steadily racks up wins.

Paddington is undefeated. He delivers wholesome greatness, and the world just keeps coming to him.

OW: $15,000,000 (Actual: $14,014,649)
Domestic: $45,000,000 (Actual: $39,595,703)
International: $40,000,000 (Actual: $28,800,192)
Worldwide: $85,000,000 (Actual: $68,395,895)
Budget: $10,000,000

RT: 81% Actual: 76%

Distributor: Neon

Note: The Monkey – Creeping Along to Profit
The Monkey is still going strong in its seventh weekend, despite dropping sharply from the previous week. While it hasn’t become a breakout horror sensation, the film is still managing to outlast a number of its competitors. With its $10M budget, the film has already made a profit, and though it’s slowing down, it’s not a complete disaster.

Let's break it down:

Weekend 1: $14M
("Not bad, not bad at all.")

Weekend 2: $6.4M (-54.2%)
("A typical horror drop, but at least it’s still moving.")

Weekend 3: $3.91M (-39%)
("The Monkey refuses to be thrown away.")

Weekend 4: $2.49M (-36.4%)
("It’s still got some life left in it.")

Weekend 5: $1.55M (-37.8%)
("It’s slowing down, but still hanging on.")

Weekend 6: $610K (-59.6%)
("It’s a drop, but it’s still clawing its way forward.")

Weekend 7: $226,383 (-66.8%)
("Still climbing, but barely clinging on.")

Total so far: $39.60M domestic, $28.8M international, $68.40M worldwide.

Even with a significant drop in its seventh weekend, The Monkey has already grossed over 6x its production budget, reaching $68.4M worldwide so far. While the movie’s audience reception has been mixed, with a C+ CinemaScore and horror fans keeping it alive, the film has clearly turned a profit. It’s not an It or The Shining, but in today’s horror market, making money on a $10M budget is a solid victory.

Looking ahead, the domestic total could still push past $45M, and if international markets pick up, the worldwide total could settle around $75M-$85M. While $100M is no longer a realistic goal, The Monkey is still creeping along with a decent shot at finishing strong in the horror genre.

OW: $22,300,000 (Actual: $19,002,852)
Domestic: $58,000,000 (Actual: $45,223,175)
International: $120,000,000 (Actual: $81,800,000)
Worldwide: $178,000,000 (Actual: $127,023,175)
Budget: $118,000,000

RT: 65% Actual: 77%

Distributor: Warner Bros.

Note: Mickey 17 – Hanging On, But Far From a Victory
“Mickey 17” is struggling to make a real comeback at the box office. Despite being a high-concept sci-fi thriller, the film isn’t turning around its fortunes in a big way. After seeing steep drops in its domestic and international numbers, it's becoming clear that the film won’t make a profit anytime soon. With a $118M budget, it needs to make much more than it's currently grossing to break even.

Let’s take a look at its performance so far:

Weekend 1: $19M
(“Not a disaster, but not great.”)

Weekend 2: $7.43M (-60.9%)
(“Oof. That hurts.”)

Weekend 3: $3.9M (-46.5%)
(“Slowing down, but not completely dead yet.”)

Weekend 4: $1.92M (-47.8%)
(“It’s not quite dead, but it’s on life support now.”)

Weekend 5: $780,058 (-59.7%)
(“A near-fatal drop. The hopes of recovery are fading fast.”)

Total so far: $45.22M domestic, $81.8M international, $127.02M worldwide.

At this point, Mickey 17 is in a very tough spot. With its $118M budget, it's clear that it won’t be anywhere near breaking even at this pace. While international markets have helped cushion the blow, this is still far from enough to make the film profitable. The most optimistic projections are for a total of $180M, but that still leaves it significantly in the red.

The film’s struggles can be chalked up to the fact that sci-fi films outside major franchises often face difficulty gaining traction, despite receiving solid reviews (79% on Rotten Tomatoes) and a decent CinemaScore (B). However, the film never really captured the imagination of general audiences, and it’s unlikely to improve from here.

It’s not a total bomb yet, but Mickey 17 is looking like a major disappointment for both its studio and its lead star. Even with some international support, this is one sci-fi film that's likely going to finish well below expectations.

OW: $8,000,000 (Actual: $7,607,250)
Domestic: $25,000,000 (Actual: $20,624,040)
International: $30,000,000 (Actual: $14,340,000)
Worldwide: $55,000,000 (Actual: $34,964,040)
Budget: $50,000,000

RT: 74% Actual: 96%

Distributor: Universal Pictures/Focus Features

Note: Black Bag – A Struggling Thriller Trying to Hold On
Black Bag has been on a downward trajectory since its opening, and while it’s not a total disaster, the film is clearly facing challenges. After a slightly more promising start, the drops have been significant, and at this rate, it’s headed for a flop unless some miracle happens in the coming weeks. Despite receiving favorable reviews for its sleek design and sharp wit (96% on Rotten Tomatoes), Black Bag is not hitting the numbers Focus Features and Universal were hoping for.

Let’s break down its box office performance:

Weekend 1: $7.61M
(“A solid start, but not quite the thrilling opening they were hoping for.”)

Weekend 2: $4.26M (-44%)
(“Oof, that's a significant drop, but still has room to recover.”)

Weekend 3: $2.15M (-49.5%)
(“The decline is steep, and it’s looking more likely this won’t be the hit it was expected to be.”)

Weekend 4: $917,440 (-58.2%)
(“A sharp drop in its fourth weekend. Things aren’t looking up for this one, and the hope for recovery is slipping.”)

Total so far: $20.6M domestic, $14.34M international, $34.96M worldwide.

With a $50M budget, Black Bag is struggling to find an audience. The critical praise is there, but it's not translating into box office success. At this rate, the domestic total looks to max out around $30M, with international markets adding only a bit of support. Given the steep drops, it’s likely to finish well below its budget, putting it in the “modest performer” zone, with post-theatrical sales possibly being its only hope for profitability.

Unless there's a surprising resurgence, Black Bag looks set to be a flop for the studio.

OW: $9,000,000 (Actual: $8,809,436)
Domestic: $25,000,000 (Actual: $19,861,854)
International: $25,000,000 (Actual: $13,700,000)
Worldwide: $50,000,000 (Actual: $33,561,854)
Budget: $18,000,000

RT: 73% Actual: 82%

Distributor: Paramount Pictures

Note: Novocaine – A Dull Injection of Disappointment
Novocaine started off with a lackluster opening of $8.8M, which wasn’t great for its $18M budget. Paramount probably hoped for better, but at least it wasn’t a total disaster. Unfortunately, the film quickly lost momentum, and its theatrical run has now wrapped up. With a worldwide total of just $33.6M, it’s clear that Novocaine didn’t live up to expectations.

Here’s a closer look at its final performance:

Weekend 1: $8.8M
(“A lukewarm start. It's not a disaster, but it’s certainly not the launch Paramount was hoping for.”)

Weekend 2: $3.76M (-57.3%)
(“The decline continues, and the word-of-mouth isn’t helping much. The film’s barely hanging on.”)

Weekend 3: $1.45M (-60.6%)
(“It’s now falling off a cliff. A steep drop, with very little hope of recovery.”)

Weekend 4: $277,022 (-81.2%)
(“A huge drop from the previous week. At this point, Novocaine is just scraping by with the last bit of its audience.”)

Final Total: $19.9M domestic, $13.7M international, $33.6M worldwide.

With its $18M budget, Novocaine has underperformed significantly. The film’s struggle both domestically and internationally means it’s unlikely to break even. While its post-theatrical potential could keep it afloat for a while, it’s highly unlikely to recover the losses at this point. A modest performer at best, with little chance of turning things around.

OW: $48,000,000 (Actual: $42,206,415)
Domestic: $100,000,000 (Actual: $81,920,880)
International: $150,000,000 (Actual: $99,700,000)
Worldwide: $250,000,000 (Actual: $181,620,880)
Budget: $270,000,000

RT: 55% Actual: 40%

Distributor: Disney

Note: Snow White – The Magic Fades Fast
What started as a cautiously optimistic opening is now looking more like a royal mess. Disney’s Snow White launched with a solid $42.2M domestically and $43.9M internationally for a worldwide debut of $86.1M. Not bad on paper—until you remember the mountain-sized $270M budget looming over it. At first glance, it seemed like Disney might have enough brand power to push this live-action reimagining into safe territory. But as the weeks go by, it’s clear the magic wore off fast.

The second weekend spelled trouble, dropping a disastrous 66.2%—a sign that audiences just weren’t connecting with the film. From awkward tonal shifts to a divisive reworking of the classic fairy tale, Snow White couldn’t settle on what kind of movie it wanted to be. Critics weren’t kind (41% on Rotten Tomatoes), and audiences were even less forgiving, especially with Gal Gadot’s much-hyped Evil Queen failing to leave a lasting impression. Disney may have wanted a bold reinvention, but what they ended up with was a confused, polarizing, and wildly expensive misfire.

Let’s break down the weekends:

Weekend 1: $42.2M
(“A decent, if not dazzling, debut. The magic isn’t dead, but it’s definitely dim.”)

Weekend 2: $14.2M (-66.2%)
(“Oof. That’s an ugly drop. Disney fans and general audiences are losing interest—fast.”)

Weekend 3: $5.94M (-58.5%)
(“The fall continues. With each passing weekend, the glass coffin gets harder to ignore.”)

Weekend 4: $2.8M (-52.9%)
(“The drop is slowing, but the numbers are still grim. The movie’s legs aren’t exactly sturdy.”)

Total so far: $81.9M domestic, $99.7M international, $181.6M worldwide.

The film is now pacing well below expectations. While it’s possible that international numbers could lift it a bit further, Disney insiders are reportedly bracing for a final total somewhere in the $230M–$250M range—well short of the $270M budget (not including marketing). Unless a fairy godmother swoops in soon, Snow White could go down as one of the studio’s biggest flops in recent years.

OW: $15,000,000 (Actual: $15,215,874)
Domestic: $50,000,000 (Actual: $33,522,179)
International: $90,000,000 (Actual: $37,500,000)
Worldwide: $140,000,000 (Actual: $71,022,179)
Budget: $40,000,000

RT: 68% Actual: 51%

Distributor: Amazon/MGM

Note: A Working Man – Falling Short, But Still Hanging On

Jason Statham's latest action flick, A Working Man, came out swinging with a $15.2M opening—just ahead of my $15M projection and slightly exceeding industry expectations. It pulled in another $15M internationally for a $30.2M global debut, which is a solid start for its $40M budget. The numbers so far suggested it could follow a path similar to The Beekeeper, which had nearly identical metrics early in its run and went on to become a sleeper hit.

However, the numbers are starting to show signs of strain. The third-week drop came in at $3.06M (-58.3%), a much steeper decline than anticipated. Currently sitting at $33.5M domestic and $37.5M international for a worldwide total of $71.02M, it’s still managing to stay afloat but is far off from the level of consistent legs it needs to become a success like The Beekeeper.

The film’s reviews remain lukewarm—52% on Rotten Tomatoes, 55 on Metacritic, and a “B” CinemaScore—but that hasn’t stopped Statham’s fanbase before. Audiences turned out for the tough-guy charm and action-packed setup, with David Harbour getting singled out as a standout. Still, the real obstacle is the Minecraft movie, which is now dominating the market and pulling in a massive share of general audience attention.

Let’s take a look at its weekend performance so far:

Weekend 1: $15.2M
(“A solid, punchy debut. Slightly above expectations and tracking similarly to The Beekeeper.”)

Weekend 2: $7.34M (-52.7%)
(“A drop in line with expectations. A bit steeper than The Beekeeper's 48.1%, but still respectable considering Minecraft’s massive draw.”)

Weekend 3: $3.06M (-58.3%)
(“The drop is steeper than expected, which signals some exhaustion. It's still far from a total collapse, but it’s not building the momentum it needs to reach profitability.”)

With a $40M budget and $71M globally, A Working Man is still on track to break even, but it needs a serious boost from international markets to stay in the game. As it stands, this film's road to profitability looks a little more uphill, especially with the Minecraft juggernaut taking a significant portion of the box office.

OW: $7,000,000 (Actual: $5,787,425)
Domestic: $18,000,000 (Actual: $10,484,354)
International: $20,000,000 (Actual:
Worldwide: $38,000,000 (Actual: $10,484,354)
Budget: $15,000,000

RT: 75% Actual: 55%

Distributor: A24

Note: Death of a Unicorn – From Buzz to Burnout?
Despite its buzzy title, A24 backing, and the appeal of Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega, Death of a Unicorn couldn’t quite conjure magic at the box office. It debuted with a softer-than-expected $5.8M—below both industry projections and my own $7M estimate. Early signs pointed to trouble: middling reviews (55% on Rotten Tomatoes, 53 on Metacritic) and only a B– CinemaScore, which often spells trouble for long-term performance in a competitive market.

Critics were mixed on the film's absurdist satire. While the father-daughter chemistry earned praise, many found the tone inconsistent and the CGI lacking polish. Still, there was hope that word-of-mouth might give it legs—or at least keep it afloat through quieter weeks.

Let’s see how it’s been holding up:

Weekend 1: $5.8M
(“Disappointing debut for such a hyped indie. The oddball tone may have thrown off mainstream audiences.”)

Weekend 2: $2.70M (-53.4%)
(“That’s a steep drop, especially with no major new wide releases. Looks like audience interest is fading fast.”)

With no international rollout yet and a $15M budget to recoup, Death of a Unicorn is in a tight spot. Unless overseas markets pick it up soon—or it gains some kind of cult buzz—the film may struggle to break even.

OW: $10,500,000 (Actual: $9,395,255)
Domestic: $30,452,000 (Actual: $20,352,860)
International: $30,000,000 (Actual: $640,824)
Worldwide: $60,452,000 (Actual: $20,993,684)
Budget: $12,000,000

RT: 79% Actual: 44%

Distributor: Universal Pictures/Blumhouse

Note: The Woman in the Yard opened with a respectable $9.39M—higher than early projections and a win for its modest $12M budget. Even though critics weren’t particularly kind and general audiences gave it a rough C– CinemaScore, the curiosity was clearly there for horror fans. It’s the kind of low-budget genre flick that can still turn a solid profit if it holds up week-to-week.

That said, the road ahead isn’t guaranteed to be smooth. Word-of-mouth has been shaky, and its third-week drop signals that it might not have the legs of a breakout hit like Smile or M3GAN. But in a quiet horror market? There’s still room for it to breathe.

Let’s check in on its run so far:

Weekend 1: $9.39M
(“A solid start, beating expectations and showing that horror fans were willing to give it a shot despite poor reviews.”)

Weekend 2: $4.52M (-51.9%)
(“A typical second-week drop for horror, especially with weak word-of-mouth. Still, it’s not a complete collapse.”)

Weekend 3: $2.1M (-53.3%)
(“The third-week drop hurts, but it's still holding onto a pulse. If it can manage a few more steady weeks, there’s potential for it to still inch toward a profitable run.”)

As it stands, it’s currently sitting at $20.35M domestic and $640K international, with a worldwide total of $20.93M. While not a huge success by any means, it’s still inching closer to breaking even. If it can hold onto some audience interest, especially with a modest international boost, The Woman in the Yard could sneak its way to profitability—if not as a breakout hit, at least as a low-key success.

OW: $130,300,000 (Actual: $162,753,003)
Domestic: $500,000,000 (Actual: $352,966,071)
International: $700,000,000 (Actual: $374,000,000)
Worldwide: $1,200,000,000 (Actual: $726,966,071)
Budget: $150,000,000

RT: 32% Actual: 48%

Distributor: Warner Bros.

Note:

OW: $9,000,000 (Actual: $7,397,015)
Domestic: $28,000,000 (Actual: $14,382,885)
International: $30,000,000 (Actual: $7,134,000)
Worldwide: $58,000,000 (Actual: $21,516,885)
Budget: $10,000,000

RT: 76% Actual: 83%

Distributor: Universal Pictures/Blumhouse

Note: Drop – Plummeting Harder Than Expected
Drop kicked off with a somewhat underwhelming $7.5M opening weekend, missing my $9M prediction—maybe I was too generous. It added $2.5M internationally for a $10M global start. With a $10M budget, it technically broke even out the gate, which sounded promising… until this weekend.

In its second weekend, Drop tumbled a nasty 55.4% to just $3.7M, bringing its domestic total to $14.38M and international to $7.13M, for a worldwide total of $21.5M. That’s still over double its budget, but the trajectory is looking rough.

Truthfully, it needed a soft drop—something like 20–30%—to keep momentum. But there’s been almost no marketing outside of a couple trailers, and it shows. The film is fading fast, even with its strong Rotten Tomatoes score (83%) and a decent 64 on Metacritic. Meghann Fahy still gets points for her Hitchcockian performance, but that’s not enough to carry it now.

The B CinemaScore hinted at mixed audience reception from the start, and word-of-mouth hasn't really picked up steam. Add in the backlash around some of its themes, and it’s easy to see why Drop might fall short of the $48M–$58M I initially projected.

It’s not a flop thanks to the low budget, but unless it magically levels out in weekend three (which... unlikely), this one might quietly fade into streaming territory before anyone even notices.

OW: $14,300,000 (Actual: $14,802,849)
Domestic: $40,000,000 (Actual: $28,973,934)
International: $55,000,000 (Actual: $36,702,189)
Worldwide: $95,000,000 (Actual: $65,676,123)
Budget: $60,000,000

RT: 50% Actual: 60%

Distributor: 20th Century Studios

Note: The Amateur – Hanging On By a Thread (But Not Quite Out Yet)
The Amateur kicked off with $15M domestic (right on target with my $14.3M prediction) and $17.3M international, for a $32.3M worldwide debut. Not a splashy start, but not a bomb either.

In its second weekend, the film dropped 52.6% to $7.77M domestically, bringing its total to $27.9M domestic and $36.7M international. That’s a current worldwide total of $65.7M—surprisingly solid for a $60M-budgeted action thriller with mixed buzz.

It’s still unlikely to reach the $150M break-even point once you factor in marketing, but a final tally around $90–100M isn’t out of the question if it holds. Rami Malek’s unconventional take on the action hero continues to draw curiosity, even if the film itself isn’t shaking up the genre.

That said, I’m worried about next weekend. The Accountant 2 is coming in hot, and it could steal The Amateur’s thunder (and audience). If it takes a big hit, this slow climb could stall out fast.

With a 61% on Rotten Tomatoes, a 52 on Metacritic, and a B+ CinemaScore, The Amateur is hanging in there—but it needs all the help it can get to avoid vanishing from the charts altogether.

OW: $50,000,000 (Actual: $48,007,468)
Domestic: $180,000,000 (Actual: $64,408,836)
International: $200,000,000 (Actual: $15,500,000)
Worldwide: $380,000,000 (Actual: $79,908,836)
Budget: $90,000,000

RT: 95% Actual: 98%

Distributor: Warner Bros.

Note: Ryan Coogler’s Sinners stormed into theaters with a fiery $48M domestic debut—just shy of your $50M prediction, but still a major win for an original horror title in 2025. Add $15.5M from overseas markets and we’re looking at a global launch of $63.5M. For a film with a $90M budget and zero franchise baggage, that’s a righteous start.

Despite the budget being on the higher side for horror, this thing is burning bright with momentum. Not only did it beat projections, but Sinners also claimed the top spot at the box office, cementing its status as a breakout original hit. And not only is this the biggest original horror opening since Us back in 2019, it’s also the first time since 2009 a single studio (hi Warner Bros) had two $40M+ grossers in the same weekend.

Premium formats made up a hefty 45% of the opening haul, walk-up traffic was strong, and word-of-mouth is off the charts. With a 98% on Rotten Tomatoes, an "A" CinemaScore (!!!), and a crowd that’s young and diverse, Sinners is clearly clicking with audiences on multiple levels.

Yes, the international numbers are still warming up—but with strong hold potential, spring break buzz, and some of the best reviews of the year, it’s not unreasonable to think this could climb toward my $380M predicition. Break-even estimates vary wildly, from $170M to a staggering $300M depending on who you ask, but Sinners already feels more like a cultural moment than a financial gamble.

The devil’s in the details—and all signs point to Sinners raising hell at the box office for weeks to come.

OW: $38,000,000 (Actual:
Domestic: $110,000,000 (Actual:
International: $60,000,000 (Actual:
Worldwide: $170,000,000 (Actual:
Budget: $40,000,000

RT: 77% Actual:

Distributor: Amazon/MGM

I predict The Accountant 2 will open to $38M, signaling a strong return for the long-awaited sequel to the 2016 hit. The original The Accountant developed a loyal fanbase thanks to its mix of sharp action, a compelling lead performance by Ben Affleck, and a plot that blended intensity with intelligence. This sequel has the potential to build on that goodwill, particularly if it delivers a fresh yet familiar story. With its estimated domestic total of $110M and an additional $60M from international markets, The Accountant 2 could reach a solid worldwide gross of $170M. With a production budget of $40M, these numbers would make it a highly profitable venture for Amazon/MGM, ensuring strong returns on their investment.

I also predict the film will achieve a Rotten Tomatoes score of 77%. The combination of Affleck’s return to the title role and the promise of well-choreographed action sequences should please fans of the original while attracting a broader audience, including those drawn to high-stakes thrillers. Positive word-of-mouth from audiences could be instrumental in maintaining box office momentum, especially if the reviews praise its narrative, pacing, and performances.

However, the movie’s performance might vary depending on market conditions, competition, and its marketing campaign. If the movie underperforms, it could open closer to $30M, possibly due to lower audience interest or stiff competition in its release window. In this scenario, it might finish with a domestic total around $80M and a worldwide gross of $130M, still turning a profit but falling short of expectations.

On the other hand, if The Accountant 2 overperforms, an opening weekend of $45M or more could signal heightened anticipation among audiences, perhaps fueled by strong promotional efforts or surprise buzz. In this case, its domestic total could climb to $140M, with worldwide earnings surpassing $200M, further solidifying its status as a major hit in the action-thriller genre.

OW: $25,000,000 (Actual:
Domestic: $90,000,000 (Actual:
International: $60,000,000 (Actual:
Worldwide: $150,000,000 (Actual:
Budget: $15,000,000

RT: 55% Actual:

Distributor: Sony Pictures

I predict Until Dawn will open to $25M, fueled by excitement from fans of the beloved video game and the growing trend of successful video game adaptations. With a projected domestic total of $90M and an additional $60M internationally, the film could achieve a worldwide gross of $150M. Given its $15M production budget, these numbers would make the film a profitable venture for Sony Pictures, particularly as it capitalizes on the game's established fanbase.

The predicted Rotten Tomatoes score is 55%, reflecting a potentially mixed reception. Fans of the original game may appreciate the film's attempt to recreate its tension-filled narrative and multi-character arcs, but critics might question whether it fully captures the game's interactive storytelling and player-driven suspense. While the horror elements and cinematic visuals could earn praise, a lack of innovation or a failure to resonate with non-gamers might hinder its critical performance.

If the film underperforms, a more modest opening weekend of $18M could lead to a domestic total of $50M and a worldwide gross of $100M. This outcome might stem from insufficient marketing, skepticism from audiences unfamiliar with the game, or lackluster reviews. While still likely to break even, these numbers would limit the film’s overall impact and raise questions about its long-term franchise potential.

On the other hand, if Until Dawn overperforms, an opening weekend of $35M could signal significant crossover appeal, possibly bolstered by a strong ensemble cast, standout horror sequences, or a viral marketing campaign. In this scenario, the film could finish with a domestic total of $120M and a worldwide gross of $180M, establishing itself as a hit in the horror genre and potentially paving the way for sequels or other game adaptations.

Overall, Until Dawn holds promise as a mid-budget horror film with built-in appeal, but its success will hinge on how well it bridges the gap between the gaming and moviegoing audiences while delivering the chills and thrills expected by fans.

OW: $130,000,000 (Actual:
Domestic: $385,000,000 (Actual:
International: $500,000,000 (Actual:
Worldwide: $885,000,000 (Actual:
Budget: $200,000,000

RT: 85% Actual:

Distributor: Disney/Marvel

OW: $50,000,000 (Actual:
Domestic: $160,000,000 (Actual:
International: $130,000,000 (Actual:
Worldwide: $280,000,000 (Actual:
Budget: $30,000,000

RT: 85% Actual:

Distributor: Warner Bros. Pictures

Final Destination: Bloodlines is set to breathe new life into the beloved franchise, and I predict it will open with a strong $50M. This opening would not only surpass the previous highest opening weekend for the series—Final Destination 4's $27M—but nearly double it, proving the immense anticipation for this next chapter in the franchise. With death's inevitable return and a fresh storyline set to keep fans on the edge of their seats, Bloodlines is positioned to dominate the box office. I also predict it will earn an impressive 85% on Rotten Tomatoes, as fans have been eagerly awaiting the return of the franchise's signature blend of horror, suspense, and dark humor. Early buzz has been nothing short of electric, and I expect the critical reception to reflect this hype.

With an opening of $50M, Bloodlines will be on track to rake in a domestic total of around $160M and an international haul of $130M, bringing its worldwide total to a staggering $280M. With a budget of just $30M, this film is poised to be a massive financial success for Warner Bros. Pictures, likely recouping its budget in the opening weekend alone and generating substantial profits over the following weeks.

In the event of an underperformance, a more modest opening of $40M could still result in a solid domestic total of $140M and a global total of $250M. Though it wouldn’t reach the heights I expect, it would still be considered a success given the film's modest budget.

However, if Final Destination: Bloodlines exceeds expectations, opening closer to $60M, it could push the domestic total to $175M and push the worldwide gross past $325M. This would solidify Bloodlines as one of the biggest surprises of 2025, turning a fan-favorite franchise into one of the top horror hits of the year.

What makes Final Destination: Bloodlines particularly exciting is the way it taps into the nostalgic allure of the series while bringing something new to the table—keeping things fresh, horrifying, and unpredictable. The stakes have never been higher, and with Bloodlines, fans can expect a thrilling continuation that will leave them questioning whether they’ve truly escaped death. With high expectations, thrilling deaths, and an established fan base, this installment is primed to reignite the franchise and deliver both box office success and critical praise.