Black Mirror Timeline with estimated years of occurrence
I've tried to put the Black Mirror episodes into a timeline, in which I estimate when we would live in a similar world than what is shown in the episodes. I've considered the Law of Accelerating Returns (accelerating change in technology, for example in computing power), although I'm more pessimistic about the future than for instance Ray Kurzweil. My reason is simply because I think it will take longer for the software to effectively take advantage of the available computing power, especially in the complex fields like recreating human intelligence in computers. I'm thinking and researching a lot about the future, therefore you can be sure that my predictions are thought-out and not randomly set. That being said, I'm only presenting to you my own opinions, which can also be wrong. So what do you think? Am I too optimistic, pessimistic or about right? And how would you change the order and the decades?
My most important predictions:
~2020s: The Turing Test in writing, speech and video is achieved (human capabilities of AIs)
~2030s: Internet of Things, VR, AR, 3D printers, self-driving cars, robots & AIs are common
~2040s: The Longevity Escape Velocity in the developed countries occurs ("immortality") *
~2050s: An AGI can be created (an AI that can do everything at least as good as a human)
~2060s: The Technological Singularity occurs (a point of very fast change because of an ASI)
2023 update: I've changed my opinion on the decades after ChatGPT appeared, because that event was a shock even to myself. The problem with artificial intelligence is that it is developing very slowly for a long time until it reaches a basic understanding of a field, then it quickly surpasses every human. This "out of nowhere" development can be seen in many fields, like in chess and GO playing, and will therefore shock us in many more fields to come.
In my opinion I'm right with a prediction if I stated the right decade and I'm partially right if I'm wrong by less than a decade (for example the 2060s include the 2050s and 2070s).
So I believe that all these events will happen in the 21st century.
[* The Longevity Escape Velocity is the point where the average life expectancy increases more than the time that passes by. I think that the average life expectancy will reach about 100 years before this point is achieved. It will mainly be possible because of the advances in Ray Kurzweil's "GNR" (genetics, nanotechnology and robotics). Keep in mind that the scientific research has already made a lot of progress in the understanding of aging and how to tackle this problem. Some animals and cells already don't age and successful experiments have actually dramatically increased the life expectancy of animals, for instance in mice.]
My most important predictions:
~2020s: The Turing Test in writing, speech and video is achieved (human capabilities of AIs)
~2030s: Internet of Things, VR, AR, 3D printers, self-driving cars, robots & AIs are common
~2040s: The Longevity Escape Velocity in the developed countries occurs ("immortality") *
~2050s: An AGI can be created (an AI that can do everything at least as good as a human)
~2060s: The Technological Singularity occurs (a point of very fast change because of an ASI)
2023 update: I've changed my opinion on the decades after ChatGPT appeared, because that event was a shock even to myself. The problem with artificial intelligence is that it is developing very slowly for a long time until it reaches a basic understanding of a field, then it quickly surpasses every human. This "out of nowhere" development can be seen in many fields, like in chess and GO playing, and will therefore shock us in many more fields to come.
In my opinion I'm right with a prediction if I stated the right decade and I'm partially right if I'm wrong by less than a decade (for example the 2060s include the 2050s and 2070s).
So I believe that all these events will happen in the 21st century.
[* The Longevity Escape Velocity is the point where the average life expectancy increases more than the time that passes by. I think that the average life expectancy will reach about 100 years before this point is achieved. It will mainly be possible because of the advances in Ray Kurzweil's "GNR" (genetics, nanotechnology and robotics). Keep in mind that the scientific research has already made a lot of progress in the understanding of aging and how to tackle this problem. Some animals and cells already don't age and successful experiments have actually dramatically increased the life expectancy of animals, for instance in mice.]
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